Analysis of China's iron and steel industry
Analysis of China's iron and steel industry
Introduction: Since September 2011, China's steel industry into the freezing period of up to six months, the market is almost not leaving any chance of the steel trading business, the face of the sudden winter steel trading business falter. Wang Chong "like to stay chapter," said: "The combination of river ice, non-a day of cold; area the size of a mountain, Fez to be the as the" winter of the steel industry, brewing formed over a long period of accumulation. Now that the ice has formed a the the steel industry snowmelt natural Ruqierzhi.
Into the end of the first quarter of 2012, the steel market began a slow rise into orbit snowmelt season chill continue devouring only the heat of the steel trading business. The entire steel industry, how to resist, how should stick to steel trading business, after the spring snowmelt also far behind?
[China's iron and steel industry usher in changes in storm]
2012 is a period of change in China's steel industry, which is also a major test for both difficult.
Shougang Group Chairman Zhu Jimin gap in the 7th China International Mining Conference, said that this year the difficult situation in the time of change in China's steel industry has come.
Zhu Jimin said, too fast, a few years ago the development of the steel industry is mainly affected by the stimulation of investment, enterprises do not feel the pressure of the market, since the end of last year, the steel market difficulties, market pressures increased sharply, facing backward enterprises are eliminated, the transformation of the steel industry The era has opened the curtain.
In recent years, China's steel industry is facing a major problem is the low-end excessive investment, excess capacity is difficult to change. Zhu Jimin also pointed out that, in many places, such as the capacity expansion of small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises is encouraged by the local government to improve the situation of excess capacity is no longer merely the steel industry itself.
[China's steel production capacity growth slowdown
The face of the industry total surplus, the industry profitable difficult situation finally slowed down the speed of the rapid expansion of China's iron and steel industry in recent years. The National Development and Reform Commission, the latest data show that the new projects of the steel industry in the second half of 2011 was 197, a decrease of 36.7%.
According to the statistics of the China Metallurgical Construction Association, the 2011 domestic new construction, new design, new planning steel production was 4.2 million tons, 7.36 million tons and 1.27 million tons, compared with the first half dropped 80%, 32.3% and 81.3% respectively, at the lowest level in recent years. Fixed assets investment in new projects dropped significantly, to 59.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 52.2% over the first half.
Honorary President of the China Iron and Steel Association, Wu Xichun evening meeting of the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, pointed out that the steel industry overcapacity is an indisputable fact, 15.8% of the cases of the first quarter of this year, growth in steel exports, the domestic apparent consumption zero growth. Meanwhile, the Steel Association member companies crude steel production in the first quarter year-on-year increase of more than 80 million tons, but inventories increased by 1.5 million tons.
After rapid expansion in recent years, the country has been the formation of the 900 million tons of steel production capacity, and minimize its release into steel production. Wu Xichun said, because steel production in the province of Hebei Province, statistics do not be part of the Shougang Qiangang Jingtang steel mills classified, resulting in 17 million tons of production are not included in the country's steel output statistics, in fact, China last year, the actual steel production has reached 7 million tons.
Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute recently released a quarterly report (the report) pointed out that, under the current deterioration in the external economic environment and the role of China's macro-control, the slow recovery of demand for steel consumption. Steel production rising trend month by month, especially since March, steel production exceeded market expectations, causing some pressure on the market.
"In April, the average price of hot rolled coil production Steel Association member companies over the same period last year of 490 yuan / ton, cold-rolled plate low 470 yuan / ton, while the average annual profit of only 130 yuan per ton of steel last year." Wu Xichun .
According to the national economic development situation in the first quarter, the report predicts that in 2012, China's steel consumption about 639 million tons, 1.1% lower than forecast in the 2012 annual advisory report.
[The ice easy to melt cold hard but the snowmelt season! Steel traders]
Steel trading business experienced the baptism of the 1990s, the steel city several weak steel prices in 2005 and 2008 in this century ups and downs of temper, and since the second half of 2011, the entire steel industry winter period. Steel trading business has been in the process of the development of the steel industry has experienced several honed, cultivated a wealth of industry experience and professional industry quality, the ability to adapt to the external environment is also stronger. Now, the entire steel industry is in the snowmelt period, as the saying goes: "snow is not cold, cold" of snow, but the steel industry will be as if the pre-dawn darkness, the sunny spring will still Fanhuasijin.
Steel trading business "Ice Age"
Since the second half of last year, the steel trading business is faced with the weight of the "profits" of the steel industry. Countries strictly control measures on the real estate sector frequency, capital and long-term tightening of the upstream raw material prices remain strong, downstream of the continued weakness in demand, coupled with the steel mills began to release capacity this year, thousands of steel enterprises in order to guarantee the performance of state-owned steel enterprises, more to do even more losses, leading to excess steel crude steel production, the pressure immediately passed on to the steel trading business. According to statistics, in 2011, China's steel industry profit margin was 2.4%, well below the 6.3% of the country's industrial sales margin.
1-2 months of this year, urban fixed asset investment growth of 21.5% year-on-year fall of 3.4%; real estate development investment increased by 27.8% year-on-year fall of 7.4%; railway fixed assets investment of 29.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 57.7%. This year's two sessions, the country will be the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.5%, this is the first time since 2004, the Chinese government's economic growth is expected to set in less than 8%. Premier Wen Jiabao stressed that the regulation does not relax the real estate and banking restrictions "two high and one left," loans to industries, energy saving and environmentally friendly building in the largely pulled steel mills per ton of steel costs and lower downstream demand levels. Peripheral seriousness of the situation, exacerbated by the difficulties of low-profit era steel trade business.
Driven steel prices rising seasonal demand "gold, three silver and four" do not give force
It is understood that, from late February to March this year, the domestic steel market prices intermittently showing a rising trend. The latest monitoring data shows that the domestic steel spot market, building materials, hot rolled coil, plate, spot market prices extended gains. The rebar prices compared with the same period in March, up 3 percent compared with February, gained more than 5%.
Calendar gold, three silver and four are the most obvious period, inventories fell for the steel industry, but clearly not enough inventory reduction efforts this year. Prior to this, from the highest point of each year for seven consecutive weeks amplitude inventories fell more than 14% decrease over the same period last year reached 15.3%, much higher than the rate of decline this year. It is reported that, in the actual turnover of the steel market, part of the steel trading business, said, steel sales businesses, part of the inventory of years ago, the high-priced resources, although the market price increase of years ago, but still below the purchase price, leading to the market price of steel inversion phenomenon still exists.
Nevertheless, based on the current steel prices rising, then the seasonal warming trend is clear. Steel prices continued to rise its biggest driving force is the height of the businesses "bullish", "pull-up", and also, therefore, further release of driven steel production capacity. The macro level of the domestic market of the Ching Ming Festival holiday release a lot of good. In March, the PMI was 49.3% in the steel industry to improve by 6.5 percentage points from the previous month. Analysts pointed out that future macroeconomic policy measures on the demand side, especially for infrastructure investment force, under construction by the end of 2011, the net investment of up to 35 trillion yuan investment this year, which means a lot of inertia, the market demand for steel will remain maintained at the higher level.
Steel trading business: easy repayment loans
By convention, every March is the peak of the steel trading business focused repayment. This year, because of the entire steel industry is still facing many difficulties, declining profits, plus steel trading business "on foot" frequent incidents. Banks to control risk, in September last year, the borrower needs to be repaid in March this year. Steel trade enterprises also changed over the years in the banking industry "guest" status.
Now, the banks lending again interval was significantly lengthened the Banking Bureau had issued several times a file on the steel trade and industry, which refers to the steel trade and industry loans too concentrated, wary of the steel trade and corporate loans that may appear in the problem and risk. National steel trade enterprises amounted to more than 20 million, and as capital-intensive industries, the steel trade enterprises the demand for funds is very large. Even the actual inventory small day-to-day financial operations of the steel trade enterprises but also hundreds of thousands, not to mention the large steel trade enterprises up to tens of millions of daily business. So the bank's credit support, to become a stable source of funding, many years the steel trade enterprises to maintain the normal operation to do steel trade once the capital chain is broken, the whole business will be difficult to sustain.
However, in the face of the steel trading business financing problem, another door quietly opened for the steel trading business. Steel mesh spot electronic trading platform online finance business has opened today, the steel trading business in the steel spot trading platform by steel spot trading, real trading background and information flow, there will be the opportunity to more easily online on steel financing for enterprises to solve the funding problem.
Steel trading business: If winter comes, can spring no longer far away!
Steel industry predicament facing downstream demand reduction because of the slowdown of domestic economic development, but the country is still in a period of investment-led. In the process of industrialization, urbanization, the broad market is still fertile ground for the steel trade enterprises. Currently, the state investment slightly reduced, but industry experience labor pains.
Steel trade and industry development space still exists, in recent years, although the steel mills continue to expand its direct supply proportion, but the main part of the demand is relatively simple and stable large-scale projects and high-end products with high added value market. Small quantity and specifications, many varieties of steel demand will continue to be the market mainstream, and can only be met by steel trade enterprises. Nearly 700 million tons of crude steel output in China, plays a very important role in the country, the national economy, you need a lot of good steel trading business to operate, such a big production of steel in a timely and reasonable distribution to every corner of the demand for steel fall.
In addition, the steel trading business in the very period of the steel industry has enough stamina and industry "smell". China's real estate industry, carrying the housing needs of 1.3 billion people, pillar industries to support the development of the national economy. The housing involves 44 industries such as cement, steel, glass, household appliances, logistics, and nearly half of the industry will stagnate if prices fell 30% to 50%, then, nearly half of them will lose their jobs. Housing prices in China this year may stage a slight pullback, but in the long term, will continue to spur economic growth engine. The real estate industry is still the main battlefield of the amount of steel.
【Abatement out new tactics to the steel industry as well as "times the amount of substitution"]
In the recently held national pollution prevention meeting, Zhang Lijun, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, said the "Twelfth Five-Year" period, the state strictly control new emissions of pollutants, severe air pollution in the city, the new project is the implementation of the regional "times volume replacement. "
"The so-called times the amount of the alternative that all new construction, expansion and renovation projects must comply with the requirements of environmental protection, new pollutant emissions must be replaced with other projects in the region reductions, the reductions should reach new amount more than doubled Environmental Planning vice president Wang Jinnan explained.
The Jinnan further reductions need to be replaced, can be eliminated through the internal closed, the relocations of the transformation, and pollution control measures to obtain, or obtained through the reduction of emissions of other existing sources of pollution in the area of the construction project.
Alternative to today's times the amount of total pollutant emission reduction alternative means upgrade "the same amount from the past." An official said MEP times the amount of alternative specifically how to operate, at present, the Ministry of Environmental Protection has not been determined implementation details, still studying.
However, the relevant implementation rules have been introduced in some places, including Zhejiang.
Increase abatement
"State to implement alternative times the amount of certain cities and regions too serious pollution, the pressure to reduce emissions of pollutants, so it must be the new tactics, Henzhao a local Department of Environmental Protection officials stressed," Twelve Five "the main tone of the pollution prevention and control is a heavy, heavy penalties.
Is called a 狠招, increasing output without increasing pollution of the same amount for the past, from the same amount to several times the binding is clearly the principle of substitution. "Equivalent alternative is not a legal requirement, but rather a matter of policy." Wang Jinnan pointed out, the policy from the State Council in 2005, "the decision to implement the scientific concept of development to strengthen environmental protection.
According to the decision, the state strictly control the total amount of pollutant emissions, all new construction, expansion and renovation projects must comply with the requirements of environmental protection, so that increasing output without increasing pollution, efforts to increase abatement and actively to solve the environmental problems left over by history.
"A lot of poor environmental quality of the area, is also less developed areas, requires the implementation of increasing production without increasing pollution has been difficult to be implemented in the future to increase abatement can imagine the pressure of the local government, but the problem of environmental pollution in China too serious, has had to the aforementioned local Department of Environmental Protection officials pointed out at the meeting, Minister Zhang Lijun sentence, not eliminate pollution is pollution exterminate us.
Times the amount of pollutants alternative involves mainly four binding pollutants, namely sulfur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, COD and ammonia nitrogen. "Of the Ministry of Environmental Protection officials told the newspaper explained, involved in regional cities with serious air pollution, that is covered by the joint prevention and control in the atmosphere in the city in three districts of 12 group ".
"As for the reductions to achieve the number of times the additional amount of this estimate to the Ministry of Environmental Protection will not make hard and fast rules, but by the local government to master over the environmental quality and pollutant emission reduction task." The Jinnan analysis. (View details ...)
[Steel industry distribution of productive forces and adjust planning issued by the State Council]
It is reported that on May 9, Industry Coordination Division of the National Development and Reform Commission deputy inspector Lizhong Juan said in Beijing, after the steel industry distribution of productive forces and adjust planning have been obtained prior to the issuance of the State Council, the next step in between the various ministries and countersigned by the concrete implementation relating to the distribution of productive forces and the adjustment of major projects.
The steel industry productivity layout and adjust planning "national" 12th Five-Year Plan 18 subordinate one of the key planning, the National Development and Reform Commission hoped can be achieved through the adjustment of the layout, adjust and optimize industrial structure, while addressing the China Steel Industry unbalanced, uncoordinated unsustainable "three no's syndrome."
For a long time, China's iron and steel industry layout the whole show characteristics of the "North Chongnan light", the rapid economic development of the southeast coast of steel demand, lack of long-term supply, and the Bohai Rim steel production capacity of nearly 400 million tons, more than 50% of the products exported . In parts of the layout of the iron and steel industry does not meet the transfer requirements of national planning and manufacturing of the main functional areas. 16 municipalities and the provincial capital city has a large iron and steel enterprises has become increasingly unsuited to the overall development of the city's requirements.
Was released in November 2011 by the author from the Ministry of the iron and steel industry, "second five" development plan "(the" Plan ") has learned that the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta region, in principle, the layout of the new steel base. Larger areas of Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Shanxi steel through mergers and acquisitions, eliminate backward reduction to adjust industrial layout. The central region provinces of Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi, without increasing the total steel capacity under the conditions, and actively promote structural adjustment and industrial upgrading. The west part of the market is relatively independent of the region, based on resources to undertake the transfer of industries, combined with regionally differentiated policy, appropriate development of the iron and steel industry.
"Planning" to build a large-scale iron and steel enterprises in the status quo for the 16 municipalities and the provincial capital city, also proposed an orderly fashion and uncoordinated urban development the steel mills transformation or relocations. During the 12th Five-Year period, according to the conditions are ripe, Guangzhou, Qingdao, Kunming, Hefei, Tangshan (Fengnan), Hangzhou, Wuhu city steel mill relocations of the transformation or restructuring and development, scientific proof in Xining, Fushun, Shijiazhuang, Guiyang urban steel mills for development.
Wu Xichun, former Vice Minister of the Ministry of Metallurgical Industry, the China Iron and Steel Association consultant, has pointed out that South Korea, Japan, the largest iron and steel industrial base in the coastal areas. From a global perspective, the trend of the development of the steel industry in the coastal, centralized, and because of coastal development of low-cost, low consumption, environmental protection and energy saving. '
Thoroughly according to the National Development and Reform Commission, 20 steel mills located in the provincial capitals and municipalities across the country, a total of 39 city-mills. In 2009, 39 cities in the steel mill's total production capacity is 228 million tons, accounting for 39.5% of the total. After the introduction of the steel industry distribution of productive forces and adjust planning, some cities in steel mills, in accordance with the specific conditions of the standard relocations.